With Manny Machado now officially off the table, it is time for the Yankees to move on and decide what the next step is for the trade deadline. The Yankees have one of the best records in baseball, but they also happen to be in the same division as the one team with a better record. The Red Sox. The Yankees are now 4.5 games back, and if they don’t catch the Sox they will play in the dreaded wild card game. For a team like the Yankees, who have one ace with a shaky group behind him, the wild card puts them at a significant disadvantage.
Suffice it to say it would be nice to get another ace on board.
Offensively, they have no real weaknesses. Judge, Stanton, Hicks, and Gardner serve as one of if not the best outfields in baseball. Even if one of those guys gets hurt, Clint Frazier is ready to step in at the drop of a hat. They have one of the best shortstops in the league with Didi Gregorius, and a second baseman who was voted to the all-star team as a rookie (Torres). Miguel Andujar is in the conversation for Rookie of the Year at third, and Brandon Drury is ready to step in if he gets injured or falters. Gary Sanchez is days away from returning at catcher. You could argue that Greg Bird could be upgraded at first base, but he has been much better lately, and some corrections he has made to his swing have me optimistic that this will continue. Bird has always been very much a “feel” guy, and one who takes a while to find his swing. I believe he’s almost there and might be about to explode.
I am not opposed to trading for a hitter who can help the team and might be a minor upgrade, or an upgrade on our backups. In fact, I’d be all for it. On the other hand, Cashman should not give up any significant prospects for a player like this. Manny Machado would have been nice, but there are no other position players on the market now who would represent a significant upgrade for the Yankees, and thus I think they’d be better off funneling their trade chips into getting a starting pitcher, and moreover I wouldn’t settle for anything less than an ace.
The bullpen is one of the best in the league. They have a closer with World Series chops, and four other relievers who would be set up guys on any other team. Statistically, they have either the best or second best bullpen in the league. An upgrade would be nice, as you can never have too much depth. That said, the same thing applies to the bullpen as to the hitters, I wouldn’t give up anything significant for bullpen help.
That leaves the Yankees with one weakness, the lack of an ace pitcher. Other than Severino, I would argue that every arm in the rotation now is replaceable.
CC Sabathia has been the steadiest, but he has had some bad outings recently. If his command goes, he will be useless. That said, I don’t think he’s going anywhere, nor should he.
Masahiro Tanaka pitched amazingly well in the playoffs last year. He has been shaky all season and is just coming off injury. He also could get injured at any time, but he’s proven in the past that come playoff time he’s a guy you want on the mound. He’s not going anywhere, nor should he.
Domingo German looks like a guy who will eventually be a reliable starter in the major leagues and could turn the corner at any moment. He could become a beast. He’s not there yet though. His 5.5 ERA exhibits the fact that he still has a long way to go.
Sonny Gray has been just as shaky as the rookie, and you’ve got to wonder if he will be able to turn it around this season. Unfortunately, the Yankees are stuck with him at this point. They can no longer send him to the minors, and he has too much talent to DFA. Even if they make a trade, it will be German and Not Gray who will leave the rotation.
Sitting behind these five the Yankees have several other good but not great options. Jonathan Loaisiga will likely return from his shoulder tendonitis soon and he looks like a true stud. The major concern with him is that he is on an innings limitation and is highly injury prone.
Justus Sheffield appears ready to contribute at the major league level. He has been excellent in Double and Triple-A. He has the stuff to be a number two starter. The only question is whether he is ready enough to be successful in the major leagues.
They also have Luis Cessa and Nestor Cortes who have been dominant as starters in Triple-A.
The biggest question then becomes, who would represent a major upgrade in the rotation. I do believe Cole Hamels and J.A. Happ would upgrade the rotation. I’m just not sure how much. I don’t believe either is enough of an upgrade to give up Clint Frazier, Justus Sheffield, or Jonathan Loaisiga. I wouldn’t part with any top prospects for either pitcher. With that said, I don’t think either will get traded to the Yankees unless they give up something legitimate. To that, I shrug.
Next up is Chris Archer. I believe he is more of an upgrade than either of the above guys. His ERA is a bit inflated, but he has been great over his past six starts and has kicked it into high gear. I believe he will be excellent the rest of the season. The problem with Archer is that the Rays are not like to trade to a division rival, and thus the price tag will be higher for the Yankees. Giving top prospects to a division rival for a rental who is not an ace? That’s a dicey proposition if you ask me.
I like Michael Fulmer, I really do. The problem is hitters seem to be beating him this year. I like that he pounds balls into the ground, and the Yankees have the appropriate defenders that would prevent those ground balls from going for hits. That said, he is not having a good season and the Yankees have guys already who will probably play about as well as Fulmer from here on out. I’d take him if the Yankees could get him. I’d be willing to give up a top prospect for him, but not Frazier, Sheffield, Andujar, or Loaisiga.
The Yankees could consider putting together a trade for Madison Bumgarner. This is a risky trade as he is coming off an injury. He is signed through 2019 though and is a bona-fide ace who has pitched in the playoffs before. He has a 2.9 ERA in about 50 innings so far this season. I would put together a nice package for Bumgarner and would be willing to part ways with one or two top prospects for him. The Giants though are only four games out of first place and don’t look ready to sell just yet. It’s a situation I’m sure Brian Cashman is keeping his eye on.
The crown jewels of players who might be available though, are Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard. For these guys, I think you sell the farm. deGrom is worth more than Syndergaard and is controlled until 2021. Syndergaard has one extra year of control. Both guys would be like having another Severino in the rotation. That could easily put them in position to win the division. I’d have to think that Sheffield, Loaisiga, Frazier, Andujar, and Albert Abreu would all be on the table in any deGrom trade. Might even have to give up all of them. Same goes for Syndergaard, but I probably wouldn’t give up as many of them for him.
The Mets have made no indication that they are looking to trade either of these guys though, and I think it’s doubtful a trade is made. A guy can dream though!
Long story short, there are few players on the market right now who are worth giving up any top prospects for. Ultimately, the Yankees need another ace, and only deGrom and Syndergaard fit that bill. If a trade must be done, a guy like Archer or Fulmer might be worth targeting, but only at the right price. I would not give up top prospects for either guy, although it would be smart to put together a nice package of prospects for both.
